At present, the peak of the current season is nearing the end of the aluminum, coupled with the domestic and foreign inventory record high, the demand is insufficient, the contradiction between supply and demand, is expected to have a downward price of aluminum. With the gradual withdrawal of the high cost of production capacity, and gradually put into operation in the northwest low cost of production, the cost curve will continue to move down, which is undoubtedly a long-term bearish on the price of aluminum. The consumption season is approaching the end of the season and a new increase in production can continue to put into operation, will accelerate the pace of decline in Shanghai aluminum. SMM network: at present, the peak season has been near the end of the aluminum, coupled with the domestic and foreign inventory record high, demand, supply and demand contradiction highlights, is expected to continue to have a downside. Micro stimulation effect is yet to be verified under the downside risks to the economy, the government frequently introduced micro stimulus policies, including the increase of railway, the transformation of shanty towns, the investment in infrastructure financing support, tax incentives for small and medium-sized enterprises to expand, and central bank "RRR" measures. But on the whole, we believe that the central government is more inclined to rely on the market to regulate the economy, policy stimulus or smaller, short-term effects will not be particularly evident. In addition, the domestic first quarter GDP growth of 7.4%, lower than expected. China's economic slowdown has become a fact, the latter to boost the price of aluminum limited. High inventory short-term difficult to digest this year, the aluminum stocks began explosive growth. Current domestic aluminum dominant stock has more than 1200000 tons, although the growth rate has slowed down, but in the short term will continue to rise. At present, LME aluminum stocks reached 5360000 tons, at a high level since four years. From the consumer side, the slowdown in domestic economic growth, real estate performance downturn. In the first quarter of this year, real estate new construction area fell by 27.4% year on year, down 10 percentage points over the same period in 2009. Is expected to be difficult to digest high inventory of aluminum city. The cost of aluminum in downward from the relevant institutions of Henan, Shandong, Ningxia three is representative of electrolytic aluminum production research, in three aluminum prices fell, accounting for aluminum about 40 percent of the cost of electricity price is also on the decline. At present, the domestic large-scale aluminum enterprises have been gradually moved to the northwest region to reduce operating costs, the average cost of the domestic aluminum industry in 13060 yuan / ton. Major domestic production of aluminum Yunnan direct purchase of electricity pilot has been approved by the relevant departments, according to the calculation of electricity price per kilowatt hour can be decreased by 0.1 yuan. For electrolytic aluminum industry, electricity prices, the cost of aluminum will be down. We believe that due to the western region of new capacity put into production continuously this year domestic aluminum production capacity will still rise and gradually shift to the west, the west especially gradually increase the weight of production capacity in Xinjiang. With the gradual withdrawal of the high cost of production capacity, and gradually put into operation in the northwest low cost of production, the cost curve will continue to move down, which is undoubtedly a long-term bearish on the price of aluminum. Production is not enough to reverse the aluminum industry down cycle according to the survey, some of the new low cost of aluminum production is still in operation, the pattern of excess aluminum industry has been significantly improved. We believe that the current non-ferrous metals industry is still in the process of resolving overcapacity, structural adjustment phase, which is a relatively long process, the short-term effect is limited. The future of China's nonferrous metals industry financing bubble gradually squeezed out, the basic side of the downturn will let the bottom of the aluminum prices continue to move down. To sum up, in the two quarter of the domestic economy is not optimistic about the big background, the fundamentals of weak Shanghai or will be dominated by oscillating. The consumption season is approaching the end of the season and a new increase in production can continue to put into operation, will accelerate the pace of decline in Shanghai aluminum. Production is not enough to reverse the downward cycle of the aluminum industry